Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  30.4  33.5  38.0  39.2  41.0  38.7  42.4  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  26.0  19.0  19.0  17.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.5  51.2  46.0  41.1  41.1  39.6  38.0  36.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  36.0  22.0  34.0  31.0  10.0   2.0  13.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.4  30.4  33.5  38.0  39.2  41.0  38.7  42.4  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%