Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191226 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  37.1  39.7  41.9  39.5  34.9  39.8  43.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0  19.0  17.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.2  49.3  47.7  44.6  43.0  41.5  38.6  38.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  25.0  50.0  38.0  30.0  13.0   2.0  -4.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.9  37.1  39.7  41.9  39.5  34.9  39.8  43.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%