Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191227 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  44.2  46.2  46.8  45.9  48.3  54.5  56.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.6  45.0  40.8  36.7  32.9  30.5  29.3  29.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  48.0  51.0  24.0   9.0  -1.0  22.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.9  44.2  46.2  46.8  45.9  48.3  54.5  56.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%