Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.2  46.6  45.0  42.9  46.4  49.6  55.8  62.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  55.0  53.6  50.8  46.7  45.4  45.4  45.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  51.0  24.0  10.0  -1.0  22.0  36.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.2  46.6  45.0  42.9  46.4  49.6  55.8  62.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%