Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191227 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.1  47.8  47.5  49.8  57.8  62.6  70.1  71.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.5  65.0  62.2  59.4  58.0  56.7  56.7  55.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  -3.0  -9.0 -17.0  27.0  22.0  27.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  51.1  47.8  47.5  49.8  57.8  62.6  70.1  71.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%