Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200516 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     78.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  18.1  17.6  17.9  14.3  11.9  15.2  20.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.2  79.4  75.4  71.7  68.2  62.7  50.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -3.0 -10.0  34.0  15.0  31.0  -1.0  49.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.3  18.1  17.6  17.9  14.3  11.9  15.2  20.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%