Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200517 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     77.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.2  15.3  12.5  11.8  20.3  24.0  32.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  71.7  67.0  63.8  54.1  45.4  39.0  31.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0   0.0  26.0  20.0  27.0  32.0  42.0  42.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  59.0  61.0  66.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.3  18.2  15.3  12.5  11.8  20.3  24.0  32.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%