Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200517 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  15.3  15.2  13.6  19.8  25.7  33.9  34.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.9  63.2  57.7  50.0  40.4  34.0  30.1  25.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  23.0   1.0  29.0  39.0  31.0  45.0  48.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  61.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.7  15.3  15.2  13.6  19.8  25.7  33.9  34.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%