Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  15.9  15.4  20.9  23.8  30.7  28.7  38.6  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.3  59.8  50.0  38.4  33.4  28.7  31.2  29.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  13.0  26.0  49.0  32.0  65.0  73.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.6  15.9  15.4  20.9  23.8  30.7  28.7  38.6  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%