Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200518 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  44.9  47.2  52.3  56.2  53.0  54.4  58.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.3  20.7  19.1  15.9  17.7  20.7  23.4  20.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  42.0  25.0  51.0  42.0  26.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.5  44.9  47.2  52.3  56.2  53.0  54.4  58.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%