Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012020 200519 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.90     69.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.7  61.1  56.9  58.7  60.1  67.5  67.4  62.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.2  13.2  16.7  17.8  15.1  14.6  15.1  17.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  47.0   0.0  13.0  40.0  71.0   1.0 -15.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  48.0  40.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  57.7  61.1  56.9  58.7  60.1  67.5  67.4  62.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%