Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022020 200528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.10     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  37.7  49.8  63.3  63.3  63.3  63.3  63.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.8  21.5  20.3  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  49.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.4  37.7  49.8  63.3  63.3  63.3  63.3  63.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%