Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200601 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  24.8  21.3  16.5  17.8  19.4  21.4  22.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  18.0  19.0  21.0  22.0  23.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  69.0  67.0 105.0  81.0  78.0  79.0  87.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.5  24.8  21.3  16.5  17.8  19.4  21.4  22.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       10.6%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       16.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       11.1%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        3.3%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       16.5%       14.7%