Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200602 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     91.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  15.9  15.2  19.4  19.2  17.3  19.6  22.2  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  68.0  74.0  89.0  63.0  66.0  59.0  50.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  15.9  15.2  19.4  19.2  17.3  19.6  22.2  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       11.3%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       17.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        5.4%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%       11.5%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        3.4%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h       14.6%       15.8%       15.2%