Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200602 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  20.1  20.3  20.0  23.7  21.3  18.7  15.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  27.0  31.0  31.0  33.0  35.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  36.0  57.0  32.0  53.0  63.0  75.0  94.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.7  20.1  20.3  20.0  23.7  21.3  18.7  15.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        4.8%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       33.4%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       17.8%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       17.8%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        7.0%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.2%       36.4%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       18.0%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       25.8%       22.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        8.7%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.8%       22.1%       16.9%