Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     92.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.1  20.8  22.8  25.1  20.3  20.4  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  29.0  37.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  39.0  20.0  31.0  51.0  79.0  70.0  88.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  20.1  20.8  22.8  25.1  20.3  20.4  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        6.4%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       16.9%       34.5%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       19.3%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       19.3%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        8.3%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       36.6%       24.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%       18.7%       13.0%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       21.8%       18.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        7.2%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%       17.8%       14.1%