Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  22.1  22.4  21.3  20.5  21.4  22.7  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  30.0  36.0  41.0  41.0  45.0  46.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  33.0  56.0  53.0  78.0  75.0  49.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.5  22.1  22.4  21.3  20.5  21.4  22.7  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        8.0%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       36.2%       28.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       23.0%       18.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.4%       23.0%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       11.7%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       32.1%       25.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.9%       15.5%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       19.4%       17.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        4.6%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        8.7%        6.8%