Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200603 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.3  20.4  20.2  20.8  22.2  23.6  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  36.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  37.0  31.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  42.0  44.0  67.0  68.0  52.0  84.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.7  21.3  20.4  20.2  20.8  22.2  23.6  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        6.1%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       34.2%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       22.1%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       22.1%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       10.2%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%       27.4%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       12.2%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%       17.8%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        3.5%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        6.4%        4.9%