Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200604 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.8  24.9  26.6  23.9  23.4  30.2  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  39.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  38.0  35.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  56.0  76.0  65.0  76.0 113.0 100.0 109.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  24.8  24.9  26.6  23.9  23.4  30.2  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.1%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        4.7%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        2.3%        4.4%