Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200604 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  22.9  24.8  20.1  22.3  26.7  26.6  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   7.0  39.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  22.0   8.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  68.0  59.0  98.0 164.0 124.0 131.0 102.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.4  22.9  24.8  20.1  22.3  26.7  26.6  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.9%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        7.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        7.5%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        4.0%        6.5%