Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200604 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  21.5  21.8  22.3  26.4  28.9  23.2  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0  18.0  31.0  35.0  26.0  10.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  61.0 105.0 177.0 137.0 123.0  75.0  69.0  N  N  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.7  21.5  21.8  22.3  26.4  28.9  23.2  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.4%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        5.3%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%        3.6%        6.2%