Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200604 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  23.4  23.3  21.6  25.4  26.1  22.8  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0  34.0  35.0  23.0   7.0   8.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 125.1 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0 108.0 145.0 134.0 137.0  63.0  61.0  65.0  N  F VF VF VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  23.4  23.3  21.6  25.4  26.1  22.8  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        7.0%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        6.9%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.4%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        3.5%        5.8%