Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200605 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.4  29.9  22.2  21.2  25.4  29.8  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  29.0  12.0   7.0  10.0  17.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.1 122.9 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0 109.0 118.0  99.0  52.0  79.0 104.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.1  25.4  29.9  22.2  21.2  25.4  29.8  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       10.6%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       11.1%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        4.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        3.9%        6.3%