Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200605 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  28.2  21.7  20.3  25.6  23.2  15.8  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  16.0   6.0  11.0  19.0  21.0  25.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 125.1 122.9 122.9 122.9 120.7 116.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 109.0  97.0  69.0  71.0  87.0  18.0   8.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.3  28.2  21.7  20.3  25.6  23.2  15.8  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.9%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        9.0%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.2%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        1.7%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        3.7%        6.1%