Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200606 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  17.6  17.9  13.2  12.6  14.1  19.6  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  22.0  25.0  14.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 112.9 112.9 108.6 100.5  93.0  86.0  79.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  50.0  74.0  41.0  36.0  52.0  48.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.1  17.6  17.9  13.2  12.6  14.1  19.6  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       12.8%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        4.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.1%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       14.6%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        2.5%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        1.8%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        0.0%        1.0%