Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200606 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  18.9  12.2  11.8  12.8  16.3  18.0  19.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  25.0  20.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 105.7  99.4  89.8  82.7  76.1  54.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  69.0  50.0  55.0  69.0  58.0  24.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.2  18.9  12.2  11.8  12.8  16.3  18.0  19.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       11.5%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        3.8%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        3.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       10.6%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        3.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        1.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        1.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%