Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  12.8  12.1  14.6  21.6  18.5  21.2  29.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6  97.4  89.8  82.7  71.5  44.7  28.4  18.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  54.0  59.0  49.0  52.0  57.0 101.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.8  12.1  14.6  21.6  18.5  21.2  29.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.4%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.5%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%