Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200607 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     90.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  13.9  15.2  20.3  19.4  21.7  27.2  32.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.5  88.0  81.0  68.6  42.8  27.1  16.3  10.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  51.0  52.0  41.0  56.0  92.0 136.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.6  13.9  15.2  20.3  19.4  21.7  27.2  32.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%