Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  15.2  22.2  18.9  20.9  23.7  29.0  30.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  76.1  55.5  35.0  21.7  14.2   7.9   3.4  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  46.0  41.0  43.0  88.0 122.0  87.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  44.0  51.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.8  15.2  22.2  18.9  20.9  23.7  29.0  30.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%