Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032020 200608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.0  17.9  19.7  22.8  23.8  38.5  50.8  N  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.2  47.7  27.1  16.3   9.3   4.2  -0.4  -2.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  52.0  56.0  87.0  83.0  56.0 132.0 131.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  43.0  48.0  52.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.2  17.0  17.9  19.7  22.8  23.8  38.5  50.8  N  F  F  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%