Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042020 200622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.10     66.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.7  17.1  16.6  22.0  24.5  26.4  30.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.8  72.9  71.7  62.7  46.9  39.6  31.8  24.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -12.0  -4.0  25.0   3.0 -37.0 -30.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.8  16.7  17.1  16.6  22.0  24.5  26.4  30.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%