Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042020 200623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.50     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  15.1  16.3  22.0  25.2  25.1  30.2  32.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.5  71.7  65.9  53.3  38.4  28.9  21.1  16.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -2.0  16.0   3.0 -36.0 -30.0 -10.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.4  15.1  16.3  22.0  25.2  25.1  30.2  32.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%