Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042020 200623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.40     62.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  24.4  24.5  23.8  27.1  27.9  29.6  24.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.6  39.6  30.1  23.4  17.5  14.6  12.5  10.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   4.0 -16.0 -19.0   0.0 -47.0 -49.0 -43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.4  24.4  24.5  23.8  27.1  27.9  29.6  24.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%