Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042020 200623 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.80     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.6  25.2  27.1  28.3  28.8  28.8  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.4  20.5  13.2   7.9   4.8   3.0   3.0   3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -24.0 -21.0  -2.0 -47.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  23.6  25.2  27.1  28.3  28.8  28.8  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%