Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052020 200706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.80     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  39.2  52.1  56.0  68.3  72.1  76.1  75.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.7  10.8   7.2   4.8   4.8   4.8   4.6   4.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  54.0  43.0  55.0  20.0  11.0 -21.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.5  39.2  52.1  56.0  68.3  72.1  76.1  75.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%