Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.8  17.4  18.1  20.4  14.3  18.9  17.7  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  29.0  37.0  40.0  31.0  37.0  33.0  52.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -2.0 -18.0  -6.0 -11.0 -10.0  -3.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       18.4%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.7%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.7%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        7.7%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       26.0%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       10.9%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%       14.1%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%       11.2%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%       24.6%       18.9%