Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  16.6  16.0  17.3  15.9  17.3  17.0  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  36.0  39.0  37.0  32.0  38.0  33.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -27.0   6.0   6.0  -6.0  17.0   6.0  35.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -7.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       20.6%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        8.6%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        8.6%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        8.0%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       28.5%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%       12.5%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       18.8%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       13.1%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       16.1%       29.6%       22.9%