Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     43.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  13.5  14.9  17.9  14.5  17.6  17.3  23.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  38.0  34.0  31.0  39.0  38.0  41.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0  -9.0   3.0 -15.0   0.0   8.0   3.0   2.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        9.1%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       37.3%       25.8%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       25.3%       19.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.6%       25.3%       19.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       25.3%       19.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%       43.3%       28.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%       26.0%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       25.8%       19.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%       19.8%       13.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%       29.2%       21.4%