Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     44.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     28.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  14.8  15.6  13.5  19.6  19.5  21.0  21.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  31.0  35.0  39.0  33.0  54.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  18.0   6.0   3.0  -7.0   2.0  28.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%        9.6%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       37.2%       30.6%
 30kt / 24h       24.1%       27.9%       26.0%
 35kt / 24h       24.1%       27.9%       26.0%
 40kt / 24h       24.1%       27.9%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       36.1%       26.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       18.7%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%       19.9%       16.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       12.6%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%       18.9%       14.8%