Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     45.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  14.5  11.4  11.6  20.8  17.3  23.5  19.7  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  31.0  33.0  39.0  36.0  45.0  47.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   1.0  13.0  -9.0   0.0  18.0  32.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -9.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%       10.7%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       32.6%       40.8%       36.7%
 30kt / 24h       32.6%       34.6%       33.6%
 35kt / 24h       32.6%       34.6%       33.6%
 40kt / 24h       32.6%       34.6%       33.6%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%       33.2%       26.5%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%       16.4%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.9%       21.6%       18.3%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%       12.2%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%       18.6%       16.5%