Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     46.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  13.3  12.5  16.3  17.9  20.2  18.9  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  37.0  39.0  32.0  55.0  41.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   8.0 -10.0   7.0  31.0  61.0  30.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0  -9.0  -7.0   9.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.5%       15.1%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h       38.2%       47.2%       42.7%
 30kt / 24h       38.2%       42.2%       40.2%
 35kt / 24h       38.2%       42.2%       40.2%
 40kt / 24h       38.2%       42.2%       40.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       36.1%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h       14.5%       19.0%       16.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.4%       24.8%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%       13.1%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%       17.1%       15.1%