Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  12.9  17.4  21.1  18.7  23.8  23.4  23.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  47.0  38.0  37.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0  25.0  54.0  17.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  58.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        8.1%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       25.8%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h       19.0%       19.5%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h       19.0%       19.5%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h       19.0%       19.5%       19.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       17.4%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%        6.4%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%       13.1%       12.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        4.9%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        7.7%        8.9%