Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  15.2  19.2  17.7  23.5  24.0  25.9  18.5  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  40.0  41.0  37.0  56.0  32.0  28.0  42.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   2.0  -8.0  13.0  19.0  29.0  17.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  56.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -9.0   6.0   8.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       13.2%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        7.3%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        7.3%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%        7.3%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        7.8%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        2.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.1%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        4.9%        7.3%