Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     50.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     26.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  15.9  14.8  18.3  26.9  23.8  21.9  16.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  41.0  37.0  40.0  50.0  41.0  45.0  71.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -11.0   7.0   8.0  29.0  18.0   5.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  55.0  54.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0  -1.0   4.0  12.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.3%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       12.5%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        6.9%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        6.9%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%        6.9%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%        6.6%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        6.5%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       14.0%        5.7%        9.9%