Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     51.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     26.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.3  18.8  22.4  22.9  23.6  18.2  18.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  40.0  38.0  55.0  39.0  40.0  47.0  70.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  13.0   9.0  20.0  34.0  28.0  33.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0   2.0   6.0  17.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        5.7%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       24.4%       18.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       14.3%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.9%       14.3%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.9%       14.3%       13.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       15.8%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%        5.2%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       11.8%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.3%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%       11.1%       13.6%