Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  21.0  24.9  25.8  25.7  26.1  22.9  24.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  55.0  46.0  41.0  40.0  68.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   0.0  12.0  20.0  32.0  31.0  33.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -8.0 -10.0  -3.0   2.0  10.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       11.5%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.6%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        4.6%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.6%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        7.7%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        5.9%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%        6.5%       10.1%