Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  25.7  26.0  24.1  25.1  19.9  21.8  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  48.0  40.0  32.0  27.0  48.0  90.0  28.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  F  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  13.0  20.0  17.0  57.0  38.0  37.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0   1.0   5.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%        4.2%       10.2%