Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     56.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  24.2  18.6  19.4  23.0  25.4  19.5  19.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  37.0  28.0  28.0  25.0  69.0  29.0  29.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  21.0  15.0  25.0  24.0   1.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0   1.0   8.0   3.0   3.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.5%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        4.4%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h       16.6%        6.5%       11.6%