Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  17.6  18.2  20.2  16.5  21.7  21.7  21.7  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  27.0  19.0  15.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 122.3 130.0 122.3 122.3 122.3  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  15.0  22.0  37.0  13.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       12.6%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       15.1%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        4.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        9.0%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%       10.5%       10.3%