Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072020 200725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  19.0  22.2  21.7  23.5  23.5  23.5  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0   9.0  11.0  18.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 117.9 113.6 124.6 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  32.0  47.0  28.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        9.2%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.9%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       11.4%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        4.5%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.8%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        5.4%        5.1%